Chapter 9: Small Problems Grow Large

The Complaints Nobody Read

Fiona is forty-six and manages the administration of a busy health clinic with six doctors and several nurses. She is responsible for appointments, records, staff schedules and the reception desk. She is efficient and well organized, and the clinic usually runs smoothly. But she is also very busy, and she has learned to focus on the most urgent problems and let smaller ones wait.

About a year ago, the clinic changed its telephone system. Soon afterwards, a few patients mentioned to the receptionists that they had trouble getting through in the mornings. The receptionists passed this on to Fiona in passing. She noted it, but she was dealing with a staff shortage at the time, and the complaints seemed minor. A few months later, the complaints became more frequent. Some patients wrote short notes. Fiona meant to look into it, but there was always something more urgent.

Then, one winter, when many people were ill, the problem exploded. Patients could not get through for hours. Some came to the clinic in person, crowding the waiting room and arguing with the receptionists. Others complained to the local health authority. Two receptionists, exhausted by angry callers, went on sick leave. A local newspaper wrote a short article about the clinic's "phone chaos". Fiona spent weeks dealing with the consequences: meetings, letters, emergency staff and an expensive rush to fix the telephone system.

When the system was finally fixed, Fiona discovered that the original problem had been a simple setting that limited the number of calls that could wait in the queue. It could have been changed in an afternoon, a year earlier, at almost no cost. Instead, the clinic had paid in money, reputation, staff health and patient trust. Fiona felt sick when she realized this.

What troubled Fiona most was that she had not been careless. She had been busy with real, urgent work, and she had made a reasonable choice each time to put the small complaints aside for later. No single decision had been foolish. But a series of reasonable postponements had allowed a small problem to grow into a large one. This is how most small problems grow: not through one great mistake, but through many small moments of "not now".

Fiona's experience is one of the most common patterns in working life: a small problem, easy to fix but easy to ignore, grows quietly until it becomes a large problem, hard to fix and impossible to ignore. Machiavelli described this pattern with a medical comparison that is still often repeated today.

Easy to Cure, Hard to See

In chapter 3 of The Prince, Machiavelli discusses how rulers should deal with problems in territories they have recently acquired. He praises rulers who see trouble coming from far off and deal with it early. To explain why, he borrows an observation from the doctors of his time about a wasting fever. At the beginning, they said, such an illness is easy to cure but hard to recognize. As time passes, if it has not been recognized and treated, it becomes easy to recognize but hard to cure (The Prince, chapter 3).

The same is true, Machiavelli says, of affairs of state. When problems are seen from far off, which only a wise person can do, they can be quickly cured. But when they are allowed to grow until everyone can see them, there is no longer any remedy (The Prince, chapter 3). He praises the ancient Romans for seeing troubles early and dealing with them at once, rather than letting them grow in order to avoid unpleasantness. A problem that is put off, he says, is not avoided. It is only postponed, usually to the advantage of whatever is causing it.

This idea has a cruel logic. Small problems are easy to fix precisely because they are small. But they are also easy to ignore precisely because they are small. When they become large enough to demand attention, they have also become large enough to be hard to fix. The window in which a problem is both visible and easily solved is often narrow, and it requires attention to small signals.

For Fiona, the small signals were there from the beginning: a few patients mentioning trouble getting through. If she had seen these as early warning signs of a possibly larger problem, she might have looked into them when the fix was easy. But she saw them only as minor complaints, less urgent than other matters. By the time the problem was large enough to demand her attention, it had grown from a simple setting into a crisis.

Machiavelli's comparison also suggests why seeing problems early requires a particular kind of wisdom. It is not enough to respond to what is loud and urgent. One must also pay attention to what is quiet and small, and ask: could this grow? This kind of attention is difficult in busy working lives, where urgent tasks constantly crowd out important ones. But it can be practised.

When the Problem Is Already Large

Machiavelli did not simply say that one should always act quickly. In the Discourses, he added an important qualification. When a problem has already grown large, he wrote, it is often wiser to wait carefully and manage it than to attack it directly, because a direct attack can make it grow even faster. Many people, he observed, make the mistake of trying to crush a large problem at once, and in doing so they hasten the very thing they fear (Discourses, Book 1, chapter 33).

This creates a balanced picture. When a problem is small, act early, because early action is cheap and effective. When a problem has become large, think carefully before acting, because a hasty, forceful response may make things worse. In both cases, the key is attention and judgment: seeing problems clearly, assessing their size and choosing the response that fits.

In working life, the second part of this advice is often forgotten. When a problem finally becomes visible, people often panic and respond dramatically: firing someone, announcing sweeping new rules, holding angry meetings or making public accusations. Sometimes this is necessary. But often, a calmer, more patient response, which addresses the causes carefully over time, is more effective. A large problem took time to grow, and it may take time to resolve.

Machiavelli's two pieces of advice can even be combined in a single situation. A problem may have a large, visible part that needs patient handling, and small, new parts that can still be solved quickly. A team that has fallen into a long conflict may need months of patient rebuilding, but a new misunderstanding that arises today can be cleared up today. Looking carefully at a problem, rather than seeing it as one great mass, often reveals pieces that are still small enough to fix easily.

Both parts of Machiavelli's advice point to the same underlying skill: noticing. The person who notices small problems early can solve them cheaply. The person who notices how a large problem is growing can choose a response that does not make it worse. The person who notices nothing is always surprised, and always responding to crises.

For ordinary workers, noticing does not require special talent. It requires a few habits: listening to small complaints, paying attention to things that feel slightly wrong, asking "could this grow?" and setting aside a little time, regularly, to look at quiet problems before they become loud. These habits are a form of the embankments we discussed in Chapter 2: preparation made in calm times, before the river rises.

Ngozi and the Quiet Conflict

Ngozi is forty-three and supervises a team of twelve in a large commercial laundry that cleans linen for hotels and hospitals. Some months ago, she noticed that two members of her team, Blessing and Agata, had stopped speaking to each other. They had been friends, but something had happened between them. Ngozi did not know what. They still did their work, and the laundry ran as usual, so she decided it was their private business.

Over the following weeks, the tension spread. Other team members began to take sides. Lunch breaks became awkward, with two separate groups sitting at different tables. Small mistakes increased, because people were not sharing information across the two groups. One day, an argument broke out on the floor between members of the two groups over a misplaced batch of hospital linen, and voices were raised. A worker who disliked conflict asked to be moved to another shift.

Ngozi realized that she had ignored a small problem until it had grown. When Blessing and Agata first stopped speaking, a quiet conversation with each of them might have helped. Now, the conflict involved the whole team. In Machiavelli's terms, it had become easy to see but hard to cure.

Ngozi also remembered the second part of Machiavelli's advice. Her first impulse was to call a meeting, tell everyone that the conflict must stop and threaten consequences for anyone who continued it. But she worried that a forceful, public response might make people defensive and harden the two sides. Instead, she chose a more patient approach. She spoke privately with Blessing and then with Agata, listening carefully to each. She learned that the conflict had started with a misunderstanding about a shift swap, which each felt the other had handled unfairly.

With both women's agreement, Ngozi arranged a short meeting between them, in which each explained her side calmly. The misunderstanding was cleared up, though some coolness remained. Ngozi then gradually mixed the two groups in their tasks, so that people worked together again. Over two months, the team returned to normal. Ngozi now has a rule for herself: "When two people stop speaking, I speak to both of them within a week." She says it has prevented several small conflicts from becoming large ones.

Ngozi also reflected on why she had ignored the problem at first. Part of the reason was a good one: she respected her team members' privacy and did not want to interfere in a personal matter. But part of the reason was less admirable: she disliked conflict and had hoped it would resolve itself. Many leaders, and many colleagues, let small conflicts grow for the same reason. Naming this honestly helped Ngozi act sooner the next time, while still respecting people's privacy by speaking with them quietly rather than publicly.

Lars and the Broken Rule

Lars is fifty-five and volunteers as the manager of a youth football club with about eighty young players, aged eight to sixteen, and a dozen volunteer coaches. The club has a few simple rules, including one that coaches must never be alone with a single child in the changing rooms, for the protection of both children and coaches. It is a rule that the club takes seriously, as many youth organizations do.

One weekend, a parent mentioned to Lars, almost in passing, that one of the newer coaches had been seen in the changing room alone with a player after training, helping him with an injury. The parent did not seem worried and said it was probably nothing. Lars was busy, and it was probably nothing. But he remembered Machiavelli's comparison. A small breach of an important rule, if ignored, could become a habit, and a habit could become something much more serious, either a real danger to a child or a false accusation against a coach. Either would be very hard to cure later.

Lars acted early and calmly. That week, he spoke privately with the coach, without accusing him of anything. He explained the rule and why it existed, and asked whether the coach had been aware of it. The coach said he had not realized it applied when helping with an injury, and he was glad to know. Lars then sent a short reminder of the rule to all coaches, and arranged for a first-aid kit and a second adult to be available near the changing rooms after training.

Nothing dramatic happened, which is exactly the point. A small breach was addressed while it was small, without fuss or accusation, and the rule became clearer for everyone. "If I had waited," Lars says, "maybe nothing would have happened. But maybe something would have, and then it would have been too late. Some problems you cannot afford to let grow." It is worth adding that wherever there is a real concern about the safety of a child, it should be reported promptly through the proper channels to the people and authorities responsible for child protection.

Lars's story shows that some small problems matter far more than their size suggests, because of what they could become. A wise person pays special attention to small breaches of rules that protect safety, honesty or fairness, because these are the problems that are most costly when they grow.

Sione and the Warning Signs in Himself

Sione is twenty-seven and works as a junior surveyor for a company that plans new roads. He loves his work and is ambitious. Over the past year, he has been working long hours, often late into the evening and at weekends. He has noticed some small changes in himself: he sleeps less well, he feels tired even after a day off, he snaps at his girlfriend over small things and he has stopped going to his weekly basketball game. Each change seems minor. He tells himself he is just busy.

One evening, Sione's older sister, who works as a nurse, visited him and noticed how tired he looked. She asked him some questions about his sleep, his mood and his work. When he described the changes, she said something that stayed with him. "These are small things now," she said. "But small things like this can grow. It is much easier to deal with them now than later."

Sione thought about Machiavelli's comparison, which he had read about in a book on leadership. He realized that it applied not only to problems at work but to problems in himself. The early signs of exhaustion were easy to ignore, because each was small. But if he let them grow, they could become something much harder to recover from.

Sione made some changes. He talked with his manager about his workload, and they agreed to share some of his tasks with a colleague. He started leaving work at a reasonable hour on most days. He went back to his basketball game. He also made an appointment with his doctor, who listened carefully, asked about his sleep and mood and gave him some general guidance, and asked him to come back if things did not improve. Over the following months, Sione's sleep improved, his energy returned and he felt more like himself.

Sione's story is a reminder that the most important early warning signs are sometimes in ourselves. Tiredness that does not lift, sleep that becomes poor, irritability, loss of interest in things we enjoy: these can be small signs that something needs attention. If you notice such signs in yourself, it is wise to take them seriously while they are small, and to talk to a doctor or another qualified professional if they continue or worry you. If you ever feel that you cannot cope, or that you might hurt yourself, please seek help right away from a helpline or a medical facility, and in immediate danger call your local emergency number.

Practical Steps: Seeing Problems While They Are Small

The first step is to listen to small complaints. When a customer, colleague or patient mentions a small problem, write it down. One complaint may be nothing. Several complaints about the same thing are a signal. Keep a simple list, and look at it regularly.

The second step is to ask "could this grow?" For each small problem you notice, ask whether it could become larger if ignored. Some small problems stay small forever. Others, especially those involving safety, honesty, fairness, relationships or systems that many people depend on, have the potential to grow. Give those special attention.

The third step is to set aside time for quiet problems. Busy working lives are dominated by urgent tasks. Set aside a short, regular time, perhaps half an hour each week, to look at problems that are not yet urgent but might become so. Fiona now spends Friday afternoons reviewing small complaints and issues. She says it is the most valuable half hour of her week.

The fourth step is to act early and lightly. When a small problem needs attention, act while it is small, with a light touch: a quiet conversation, a small adjustment, a reminder. Early action rarely needs to be dramatic. Like Lars with the coach, a calm, private word can solve a problem before it becomes a crisis.

The fifth step is to think carefully before acting on large problems. If a problem has already grown, resist the urge to respond dramatically. Take time to understand its causes. Consider whether a forceful response might make it worse. Choose a patient, careful approach where possible, as Ngozi did.

The sixth step is to watch for warning signs in yourself. Pay attention to changes in your own sleep, energy, mood and relationships. These are early signals that your working life may need adjustment. Act on them while they are small, and seek professional help if they continue.

Not Every Small Thing Is a Problem

There is a risk in this chapter, and it is worth naming. A person who takes Machiavelli's comparison too seriously may begin to see every small thing as a looming disaster. They may worry constantly, investigate every minor complaint and exhaust themselves and others with endless attention to things that do not matter. This is not wisdom. It is anxiety.

Machiavelli's point was not that every small thing becomes large. It was that some small things do, and that a wise person learns to tell the difference. Most small complaints are just small complaints. Most minor irritations pass. The skill lies in noticing patterns, in recognizing which kinds of problems tend to grow and in giving those problems early attention while letting the rest go.

It is also worth remembering that not every problem is yours to solve. As a worker, you may notice a small problem in an area that belongs to someone else. In that case, the early action is often simply to tell the right person, clearly and calmly, and to let them decide what to do. Fiona's receptionists did exactly the right thing by telling her about the complaints. The failure was not theirs.

If you raise a small problem with the right person and nothing happens, it may be reasonable to raise it again, calmly, perhaps in writing, especially if it concerns safety. Some problems need more than one mention before they are heard. But there is a limit to what one person can do. Once you have reported a problem clearly to the people responsible, you have done your part, and the rest belongs to them.

Finally, a culture in which people feel safe to mention small problems is one of the best protections against large ones. Leaders who respond well to early warnings, who thank people for raising concerns rather than blaming them, will hear about problems while they are small. Leaders who respond badly will hear only when it is too late. We saw this in Chapter 6 with Rustam's building site, and in Chapter 7 with Solveig's flower shops.

A Short Exercise: Your Early Warning List

This exercise helps you notice small problems in your working life before they grow. It takes about twenty minutes the first time, and five minutes each week afterwards.

Take a page and write three headings: "In my work", "In my relationships at work" and "In myself". Under each heading, list any small problems or signals you have noticed recently, even if they seem minor. In your work, it might be a recurring error, a small complaint or a system that sometimes fails. In your relationships, it might be a colleague who has gone quiet, a small tension or a misunderstanding. In yourself, it might be poor sleep, irritability or loss of interest in things you enjoy.

Next to each item, ask "could this grow?" and mark it with a simple sign: one sign for "probably not", another for "possibly" and another for "yes, if ignored". Be honest, but do not exaggerate.

For each item marked "yes", write one small, early action you could take in the coming week. Keep the actions light and practical: a conversation, a check, a message to the right person, an appointment, an evening off. For any item you are not responsible for, write whom you could tell.

Each week, spend five minutes looking at your list. Add new items, remove ones that have been solved or have faded and check on the ones marked "yes". Fiona made this list after the telephone crisis. Under "In my work", the first item she wrote was "Receptionists mention patients finding the online booking page confusing." She marked it "yes, if ignored". The next week, she asked a patient volunteer to test the page and found two simple problems. They were fixed in a day.

Chapter Summary

In chapter 3 of The Prince, Machiavelli compared problems to a wasting fever, which at first is easy to cure but hard to recognize, and later easy to recognize but hard to cure. He praised those who see trouble coming from far off and deal with it early, and warned that problems put off are not avoided, only postponed. In the Discourses, he added that when a problem has already grown large, it is often wiser to manage it patiently than to attack it directly, which can make it grow faster (Book 1, chapter 33).

Fiona and the telephone complaints, Ngozi and the quiet conflict, Lars and the broken rule and Sione and the warning signs in himself all found that noticing small problems early, asking whether they could grow and acting lightly while they are small can prevent crises. Not every small thing is a problem, and some problems are not ours to solve but ours to report. A culture in which people feel safe to raise small concerns is one of the best protections against large ones.

In the next chapter, we will look at another of Machiavelli's observations about fortune: that people succeed when their way of acting matches the times, and struggle when it does not.